GFC Vol. 1 Chapter 2, COVID-19 Melbourne Lockdown 4.0

A chant to the tune of John Philip Sousa’s “The Stars and Stripes Forever“

1st verse:

“Here we go, here we go, here we goooo,

Here we go, here we go, here we goooo!

Here we go, here we go, here we go!!

Here, we go, here we go, here we go.”

Chorus:

“Here we go, here we go, here we goooo,

Here we go, here we go, here we go!

Here we go, here we go, here we goooo!!

Here, we go, here we go, here we go.”

I can’t recall the rest…

What I do recall after drinking deeply from the Al Pope’s Pierian Spring of knowledge (a.k.a.Wikipedia) (as discussed in a previous edition) is this:

“Here we go” was a football chant “written” by a veritable wordsmith named “Harold Spiro”, recorded by a group with the name of “Hoagy and The Terrace Choir” and released to the salivating English Premier League masses in 1976…

I am willing to bet Phil Sousa never envisioned his composition being seized upon and repurposed to serve organised hordes of disenfranchised, working class, bellowing, weapon carrying brawlers…

..or did he?

Only the man himself will ever know.

Fear and greed acting separately but in unison.

On one hand (at this minute) for those watching the crypto currency markets, the recent overall Bitcoin “Rate of Descent” in aviation terms, whilst not quite that of a lead balloon, is steep nevertheless.

On the other hand, for those whom are believers in cycles and patterns (also discussed in an previous edition) developed economies are, now departing “the base camp” and embarking on a reinvigourated ascent toward another global credit bubble around 20 years following the end of the last. It may not be coincidental that this is a generational time frame.

Reminiscent of Boyle’s Law, climbers’ backpacks, pockets and fists are distended by cash seeking a form of pressure equalisation via a loving new home (or homes) both, metaphorically and physically,

The stock markets’ rise and rise is making great fodder for national leaders, celebrities, winning market punters, taxi drivers, janitors and tradies and other walks of life not normally associated with expert economic analysis.

These folks often point to recent local share market curves as proof of a strong and growing economy whilst ignoring the facts that the market gains only go into the pockets of the investors (except for marginal tax) and We are not actually creating anything that can be traded for something else of value.

Thank goodness We can still sell dirt and the diggers and shovels are viewed as “cheap”..

Amid the chaos of accusations, recriminations and speculation around the current COVID outbreak, and while we are (more or less) on the subject of lead balloons and leadership, note that the latter begins with “lead”. When viewed literally and from the perspective of the mineral (Pb on the periodic table) the definition can be summarised via a tag cloud thus:

Therin lay numerous similar but uninspiring and unfortunately, common characteristics found among leadership.

Is it coincidence or some terrible joke?

Or, have we stumbled upon a new role title of “Lead-er” perhaps?

Have a great weekend.

These popular (and noisy) little animals and members of the Finch family were (paradoxically) darlings of the “Silent Generation” pet-set.

The canaries’ incessant twittering could be heard emanating from mineshafts, patios and kitchens throughout the first -world.

-A sound that has recently, been superceded by more insidious “digital noise”, furious thumb-taps and involuntary utterances of another type of global twitterer..

“The canary in the coalmine”

Until the1980s in the U.S., U.K., Australia & Canada canaries were used in the underground mining industry. Their environmental sensitivity and noisy nature -an artefact of their lonely, tireless search for a “significant other”- were employed for detecting and alerting underground human miners to the presence of toxic gases like Methane, Nitrous Oxide, Carbon Monoxide and others that we’ve otherwise been content to release into the open air…

Put simply, if the canary went quiet, it was assumed to be dead due to the presence of toxic gases and therefore a trigger to make a dash for the lifts….

Hence, “The canary in the coalmine” as a metaphor for a (the) harbinger of “bad things”, has become embedded in our vernacular.

This is not to be confused with another avian metaphor for describing unknowable, cataclysmic events that were subsequently, “inappropriately rationalised” : “The Black Swan”

This is based on a Roman belief that black swans didn’t exist and hence, “..the observation of a single black swan would be the undoing of the logic of any system of thought, as well as any reasoning that followed from that underlying logic.”

Of course, (unlike the Romans) the folks from Dawlish U.K and we Australians KNOW they exist..

Could it be argued; if you were able to recognise and respond to all of the dead canaries, a “Black swan” (from this perspective) cannot exist or, is that a logical impossibility? In which case, would not the existence of a logical impossibility establish the very basis for a “Black Swan”?

Our natural predilection for “Negativity bias” means that we are often, (sometimes unconsciously) hypervigilant; anticipating and planning for the next appearance of our metaphorical, “Ex yellow feathered friends” among the many events that we witness.

Occasionally, our bias (and the metaphorical, ex-canary) serves us well. We believe we can recognise a portent relatively easily. Take for example, the historic (and truly hysterical) run on toilet paper following the General availability release of COVID-19..

Mostly however, the “canaries” are observed in plain sight; post-mortem and rendered in glorious 16k, super-slo-motion, 10000 frames/second by our ever-ready “hindsight” goggles..

For example reflect on how many Bitcoin “should have” been bought “..back when it was 25k..”..?

And then, there’s always the question of whether the canary is actually dead…

“Mr. Praline: I’ll tell you what’s wrong with it, my lad. ‘E’s dead, that’s what’s wrong with it!

Owner: No, no, ‘e’s uh,…he’s resting.”

Or like the fallen forest tree, cannot be heard….

Notably, in either case, the death (or otherwise) of the canary cannot be established hence, the scenario has morphed into my favourite cat….

I made once (muttered below my breath) a mix of metaphors referencing the endless journey shared with avid ornithologists around the world: “One person’s “Canary in a coalmine” is another’s “Ex Parrot” unless it becomes a Black Swan”.

Have a great weekend.

Does that ring a (albeit distant) bell?

And so, as we prepare to farewell another Gregorian calendar year…

Except for those few, lucky gamblers -avid practitioners of cognitive bias combined with exceptional hindsight, soothsayers, professional tea-leaf readers & crystal-ball-gazers or Midweek Tattslotto ticket holders (spot the difference), few could have foreseen what unfolded in 2020?

In biblical terms, this year outperformed on the Australian stage. It opened strongly with Fire and continued with Drought and Disease. Flooding appeared in the closing act. Notable absentees from the lineup: Famine (on tour throughout impoverished areas of US) and Pestilence (if you don’t count politicians)

Although in reality, the pollies were all, “Working From Home”.

Whom will be successful in calling 2021?

One thing is for certain: There’ll be fewer days than 2020…

I’ll venture a handful of possible outcomes with a not insignificant probability of occurring in 2021:

• The “One percent” will not become poorer
• Australia will continue to live off “the fat of the land” -until China stops buying.
• Trump will not serve two consecutive terms
• We’ll all be one year older when it’s over….
• Many more tasks will be carried out remotely than ever before.

It is well and good that we may rejoice in the passing of this year and express our wishes for a much improved future. However, in acknowledgement of the overwhelming human desire for “the way things were” and subsequent tendency to dial the rose tint up to “11” to filter unpleasantness..

The idiom “Out of the frying pan and into the fire” comes to mind…

To All and your families,

May your holiday season be enjoyable & rejuvenating, peaceful and free from worry.

May your next year be healthful, prosperous and rewarding.

May your:

• “Sooth” become “Fore”
• Horse/dog/team/politician/snail/frog/ place first where the result not “rigged”…
• Tea leaves settle in a manner pleasing to the eye
• Crystal ball be filled with grand visions
• Metaphorical, 3,000 bed, 15-deck, Tatts, (cruise) ship “come in”.

Rgds

RC

I was, one of 20-plus silent, motionless avatars attending a regular online meeting..

A few of us had employed copies of our staff ID images as avatars or ported images from other platforms.

Many had chosen cartoon characters, pet photos, or other symbols.

Others had elected for the default..

We were all contributing our time ostensibly, to listen attentively to the presenters, participate in feedback and leave the meeting all the wiser with the added bonus of having our social/professional bonds strengthened..

The discussion continued for some time without interruption and as the prevailing dialogue strayed in to subject matter that was irrelevant or inaccessible to me, I found myself scanning the avatars and beginning to ponder the value of online meetings between participants with no eyes or mouths…

Or ears..

I had an epiphany whilst evaluating the sheer number of hours spent daily in A/V communications against time otherwise spent doing “important stuff”.

Leveraging AI is the answer!

AIs will be capable of capturing and assuming our point of view, extrapolating and translating it into audio/visual outputs to present to an audience of other AIs and in doing so, enable simultaneous participation in the seemingly uncapped number of daily con-calls freeing us to do the things that really move us like, training Machine Learning algorithms that delegate our AIs to newly-spawned AI meetings, watching our shares plummet and soar through a single trading session, online shopping for cat food or making toast…..

A brilliant application of technology – wouldn’t you agree?

Conveniently ignoring the efficacy of decision making; imagine a time when the only limiting factor to the number of meetings would be the resources available to host and attend millions of simultaneous AI interactions!

However, whilst in mid self-congratulation regarding my innovative application of technology, I was suddenly halted by the presenter’s announcement of a, “..pause for questions.”

Silence marked the beginning of “Mutefest”..

Seconds passed…

I scanned the opaque and motionless avatars for any sign of life hoping that an owner may indicate their participation and in so doing, validate the effort made by the presenter.

The seconds slowly ticked by..

I imagined the presenter waiting in anticipation for the “killer” yes/no question that has no right answer..

The silence became more awkward and it’s demands to be filled became deafening; amplified by the audience’s paralysing fear of being seen as responsible for a vacuous or inane response -just to fill the space..

Time almost stopped.

Finally the convener shocked the frozen discourse into life with , “If there are no further questions, we’ll finish up there”

“Thank you”

And with that, I marvelled upon the discovery of yet another unquestionable benefit to my AI meetings solution: “The end of Awkward Silence!”

Or, perhaps I have missed the point?

Have a great day!

Yes, some may consider this occasion to be “Bigger than Ben Hur” (a reference to the original, late 19th-century epic stage play, not the 1959 film starring NRA poster-child, Charlton Heston).

Incidentally, the film was also an epic boasting the biggest budget of the time at $15.175m and upon its release, it became the fastest and highest grossing film in 1959 It’s reasonable to expect that it would have to have achieved at least one significant milestone after 212 minutes of running time…

According to the sensibly-named website: daysoftheyear.com “Put a pillow on your fridge day” is allegedly, an artefact of an early European and U.S. 20th Century custom that purports the placement of a piece of linen in a “larder” to be a harbinger of good luck and the abundance of food. Furthermore, it seems the correct observance of “PaPOYFriD” (a portmanteau minted this very minute!) is to place a pillow in the fridge presumably, in recognition of it’s key role in food storage.

In a slight departure from the purist’s approach, and with no disrespect intended, I celebrate PaPOYFriD by hanging my tea towels under the sink with the spuds…

So, after contemplating your approach to the observance of this grand tradition you may (understandably) feel compelled to ransack the linen press for an overly-loved pillow fit to share the fridge with your Fromager D’affinois and leftover pizza.

..or not.

If you come up empty here are some ideas for suitable replacements:

Have a great weekend.